One of the most notable paragraphs in the Mid Point Report was the following -

Attendance numbers in the Diocese have stabilised over the last 3 years with the reported average weekly attendance showing only 0.5% growth from 2004 to 2007.

Based on an attendance of roughly 65,000 (that’s right, Jeremy?), that mean’s we’ve only increased by about 300 people over the whole diocese for the last 3 years. Over the same period, I belive that Sydney has roughly grown by 3-4%.

It’s not quite time to panic yet. I think some stalling in growth was probably going to happen as the diocese reshapes itself. Still, it highlights the need to keep reforming the structures, and to do everything possible to put us on a missional footing.

You beat me to the punch in starting this thread…

I personally think this is actually very concerning.

Not to play “compare the numbers” too much, but it was mentioned in the recent Desiring God conference that Mars Hill had had 2,000 extra people walk through the doors over their 20 services the week prior. In one week.

Now that doesn’t = 2000 people saved, but the odds seem somewhat better.

So the question is: Is that just ‘the way it is’ i.e. God is just blessing them at the moment (or for the last 10 years anyway).

Or do we really have to take a long, hard, sober look at ourselves?

I think there is a growing trend for regulars to be less regular. Who comes morning and night anymore? How many regulars are there every week?
Its not unusual for people who’d say they are highly committed to church to miss one in four or one in three Sundays.
Weekly attendance figures mask this a little.
Lets not play ‘how much has Mars Hill grown by’ - for starters we all know that church planters count legs to figure out attendance;-)
If we did want international figures, the more interesting comparison would be the growth of the church in China, South America, Africa…
Want to make a differrence? Turn up at church this week, invite a friend, pray for the meeting, get equipped there to be Christian Monday to Saturday, have some non-Christian friends & have them around for dinner, pray some more etc etc

Michael Kellahan. - 02 October 2008 03:51 PM

Want to make a differrence? Turn up at church this week, invite a friend, pray for the meeting, get equipped there to be Christian Monday to Saturday, have some non-Christian friends & have them around for dinner, pray some more etc etc

Oh, so that’s the answer…

Better get onto that then.

Want to make a differrence? Turn up at church this week, invite a friend, pray for the meeting,

Hi Michael, I’ve been enjoying your blog mate, been good to hear your thoughts.

When I read your comment above, what I hear is that we don’t need to change, we just need to try a little harder at what we are already doing.

I can’t agree with this approach. If you keep doing what you are doing, you keep getting what you are getting…

No, don’t hear me saying that.
Of course we have to take this seriously. I was just thinking how rubbery is the data we’re looking at. I remember once seeing a person filling in the record of the service for the entire month by his rather questionable memory. Needless to say that practice was reformed.
So I am a little suspicious of the data - eg I think I could name 100 people off the top of my head who’ve joined Anglican churches in the period. Most of them are children who aren’t included in weekly statistics.
However rubbery the trend is clear so does need to be looked at long and hard.
And I’m really glad the report has been produced and that we’re taking this seriously. There will of course be needs to reform structures and to think about what being missional is.
My point, clumsily put, was that change does come by doing things differently - I think if more people were regularly praying, relating with non Christian friends (dare I say actually having non Christian friends) regularly coming to church, and being equipped to serve then this would be a very significant change and reform.
So yes, lets think about reform and becoming missional as a diocese. 
But lets also be missional ourselves - start doing that and the diocese will ahve no choice but to follow

Ok, glad we are kinda on the same page then.

I have to say that I don’t think people are more or less regular at church now than they were 20 years ago, when I first joined the Anglican church. Certainly not where I’m at, anyway.

I think there will always be a fringe at churches that are only partially in, and they will be irregular. But if the core of your church is generally irregular, there is a serious problem that will need diagnosing and treatment.

Regarding getting unbelievers along to church, that is every pastors dream of course. People will not bring their unchurched friends along to church if they think they will be bored or embarrassed. Doesn’t matter how much pressure you apply, it just wont happen. If people are enthusiastic about their church, they will bring along guests.

One thing a friend suggested is that you preach, every week, as if there are unbelievers in the congregation. If you keep doing that, my friend said, eventually unbelievers will start turning up…

You’re friends with Tim Keller?

No! With someone who has been inspired by Keller…

Lies, damned lies and statistics!
One of the things that has always worried me about the Diocesan Mission (even though I love the idea of setting a target for ourselves-something to aim for) is that we are trying to measure something which is in itself meaningless. The number of people in our Churches is just a number-it doesn’t necessarily correlate with the number of Christians in our Churches.
And as Michael has said, the figures themselves are (and maybe always have been) rubbery at best. Some people conscientiously count and record the numbers present, some are far less particular. Some count children, others not, some count the preacher, service leader and musicians, others don’t. Some people don’t include late-comers. Then it’s always possible that someone will come along later in the week or month and “adjust” (upwards OR downwards, depending on their agenda).
It’s an interesting exercise to count the number of people in your Church service on any given Sunday (my other half and I regularly do this and we always get the same number- if we count at the same time) and then compare it later to the register. Some sidespeople always get a different number to us. The discrepancies we see are relatively minor, but multiply this by several congregations by all the parishes and the number is quite substantial.
Btw, we don’t do the count just to be busybodies or troublemakers; he is a warden and needs the figures for a project the wardens have been working on-he actually wants accurate figures, but even then, it only tells him how many people were there, not how many of them have put their faith in Christ.

I am not very surprised by this figure as I have heard similar concerns raised by various people over the last few years. As an outsider (non-Anglican living outside of Sydney) I am not sure I have much right to comment, but...When I was visiting Sydney for a couple of months in June & July I had the chance the visit a number of churches and talk with pastors about what had been happening in the last couple of years in evangelical churches.

It seems to me that there is significant activity and desire to evangelise, and there are a number of healthy growing churches but mostly this is resulting in:
* return and renewal of fringe people (those who are either believers who have drifted away or others who have some church background).
* transfer growth - some churches are growing because they are doing a good job but most of those joining are believers who are disaffected with their previous church (whether for good or bad reasons).

My impression was that what we are mostly seeing is the shuffling of believers from one church to another. The growth of some churches tends to hide the fact that there is not a lot of primary evangelism bearing fruit in terms of conversion of previously unchurched people.

If this is true it is not enough to just try harder, there needs to be a new paradigm of evangelism if we are going to have any significant conversion growth. I find it quite exciting to hear the way people are starting to look at Sydney as a mission field needing a missionary/missional/missiological approach to ministry.

Hey Michael,

No doubt the figures are not 100% accurate for all sorts of reasons.

It’s great you know of so many people who have started walking with Jesus. What is probably the case is that the 0.5% is not only made up of new people coming, but also existing people leaving.

I personally know of a bunch of people who have denomination swapped - to Pente’s, Baptists, even Presbyterians (shocking, I know).

One of the other trends is a reduction in Anglican nominalism, as evidenced by the last Census. Now not all the previous nominals would have been service attenders, but no doubt some were and are now not.

I think the whole part-time attendance thing is an interesting and very real issue. At a previous church this was prevalent, with a chunk of the attenders averaging 1-2/mth.

By the way, I think suggesting Mars Hill is a church plant counting legs is a bit cheeky. Isn’t another secular western culture a more valid comparator than China and Africa? If we want to follow China we should dismantle all the church structures and go full on house church.

Jeff
I post as a church planter who counts legs - we must thank God for what he’s doing at Mars Hill & learn what we can from it. (I’m blogging my way through the 18 points at the moment.) And yes, they are ministering in a post Christendom global city so it may be more helpful to consider them rather than the remarkable way God is growing his church in China say.
I’m preaching through Revelation at the moment. Isn’t it great that there will be a great multitude from every tribe nation and tongue worshipping Jesus forever? Some of them will be from Sydney. Some of them are not yet Christians.

forgot to mention - no one can number them!

Craig wrote:

Over the same period, I belive that Sydney has roughly grown by 3-4%.

According to the SMH today the NSW government is considering scrapping 2 railway lines because it can’t pay for it, let alone build all the extra infrastructure we’ll need if we allow population growth to continue.

At the growth rates you mention Craig, that means we’ll see 8 to 16 extra Sydney’s in the lifetime of babies born today.

The NSW government should just role over and admit it.

“Fit a water efficient shower head because my Developer mate demands population growth, and we’re running out of water (and political donations)”.

Jeff Atack - 02 October 2008 02:59 PM

You beat me to the punch in starting this thread…

I personally think this is actually very concerning.

Not to play “compare the numbers” too much, but it was mentioned in the recent Desiring God conference that Mars Hill had had 2,000 extra people walk through the doors over their 20 services the week prior. In one week.

Now that doesn’t = 2000 people saved, but the odds seem somewhat better.

So the question is: Is that just ‘the way it is’ i.e. God is just blessing them at the moment (or for the last 10 years anyway).

Or do we really have to take a long, hard, sober look at ourselves?

Hi Jeff,

I don’t want to side-track things too much, but we are talking about numbers and I must admit I have a passion against dodgy statistics and the one you quoted above sounds very dodgy.

Do the have a reference link for that figure please?

In a whole year to 2007, Mars Hill added a combined total of 1,686 people across 4 campuses.

That’s great, but it was only the 23rd fastest growing church-cluster in the USA in 2007. (Reference for both figures: Outreach Magazine)

Under the surface the USA is in many ways very different culturally to Australia.

It seems to me that it will be much more profitable to look at what is working successfully somewhere in Australia.

Grace & peace,
Terry