I’ve met Bruce, heard him speak in front of the CSIRO petroleum division of North Ryde, and chatted with him on the phone on a number of occasions. I’ve heard his military briefings were taken very seriously by higher brass — and yet still the conversation is avoided by mainstream Australia.

Regarding the trade deficit — I think Bruce is referring to the way the trouble can start. Imagine the deficit increasing like that permanently.  Not very economically sustainable is it? “Times, they are a changing.... “

But more expensive oil is only half the story. The real action begins when the Export Land Model takes over. That’s when the rationing starts. We are talking about the final oil crisis, set by geology, and that sometime within the next 10 to 20 years there may not BE any world market for oil as the domestic consumption in exporting nations eclipses their declining production — effectively eliminating the world market long before the whole world “runs out of oil”.

James, let’s say that oil is not the foundation for the entire industrial economy that I say it is, and that the inflationary pressures from oil are actually back where you say it is.

How about developing nations? From “Oil price may hit $200 — developing countries facing collapse”

Recent oil price increases have had devastating effects on many of the world’s poor countries, some of which now spend as much as six times as much on fuel as they do on health. Others spend twice the money on fuel as they do on poverty alleviation. And in still others, the foreign exchange drain from higher oil prices is five times the gain from recent debt relief.

Each dollar increase in the price of oil directly affects LDCs’ capacity to provide health care, education, and basic public and social services to their people. Agriculture, the mainstay of most of these economies, is badly hit and farmers can be thrown back into subsistence farming and hunger when oil hits a treshold that makes agricultural production and marketing difficult. All other productive sectors of LDC-economies depend on affordable fuels.